I found yesterday's Silicon Alley Chart very interesting. They have compiled some Forrester data that highlights the y/y growth of online retail and this year looks pretty bad. I postulate that this is caused as much as a result of the maturation of online audiences as the poor economy.
The continued fragmentation of media and web sites in general caused by search and social media is keeping consumers from finding their way. Advertising should play a key role in driving consumers to purchase. However, online most purchases are predetermined by the consumer, meaning that they come to the Web with a specific task in mind. The consumer starts with google or goes directly to the store of choice Amazon or eBay, this leaves very little time for brands to build loyalty or change consideration. Even on more casual sites like news or sports the brands have very few opportunities to change the consumer behavior mostly because the creative most widely used is easily ignored.
We need to build better experiences for both the consumer and advertiser to interact in a meaningful way. Some folks would say that Web video will solve all these problems but I don't agree. A tiny 320x240 video will not replicate the engaging experience of Television. Larger format video like Hulu and the network sites may be the first step but they are still not the most appropriate consumer experiences.
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