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Has the Internet Lost its Steam?



I found yesterday's Silicon Alley Chart very interesting. They have compiled some Forrester data that highlights the y/y growth of online retail and this year looks pretty bad. I postulate that this is caused as much as a result of the maturation of online audiences as the poor economy.

The continued fragmentation of media and web sites in general caused by search and social media is keeping consumers from finding their way. Advertising should play a key role in driving consumers to purchase. However, online most purchases are predetermined by the consumer, meaning that they come to the Web with a specific task in mind. The consumer starts with google or goes directly to the store of choice Amazon or eBay, this leaves very little time for brands to build loyalty or change consideration. Even on more casual sites like news or sports the brands have very few opportunities to change the consumer behavior mostly because the creative most widely used is easily ignored.

We need to build better experiences for both the consumer and advertiser to interact in a meaningful way. Some folks would say that Web video will solve all these problems but I don't agree. A tiny 320x240 video will not replicate the engaging experience of Television. Larger format video like Hulu and the network sites may be the first step but they are still not the most appropriate consumer experiences.
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Branded Entertainment Shines Again

Over the last few years a number of production companies have sprouted up creating video content specifically for the web. Initially, they started creating short-form video that they planned to monetize with pre-roll and overlay ads quickly finding that the CPMs they could generate on entertainment content was not enough to cover their costs of bandwidth and production. Unlike TV, the content producer in most cases is paying for the distribution of their video which is a very expensive proposition unless you are willing to allow your content to be carried on YouTube, giving up all control of the consumer experience and monetizaiton possibilities.

There is a great article in The New York Times today covering the branded entertainment category and how marketers are going back to their roots of old time radio and producing shows in support of their products and services. This is an interesting idea as it supports a theory that because of the Internet and the ability to connect directly to a large targeted number of consumers advertisers are quickly becoming publishers.

In many categories, advertiser web sites out rank major media companies catering to the same audiences ultimately competing for ad budgets and consumer mind share. As social media continues its torrid growth and consumers use it to exchange information not only about their personal lives, but about brands, products and services. Advertisers have no choice but to continue to expand the way the engage consumers and build loyalty and ultimately a connection with the consumer on a personal level every day.
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AOL rebrands


As part of AOL's spin off from Time Warner it is launching a new image in an effort to paint a dynamic picture of its future with hopes of capturing the attention of consumers and advertisers alike. The last few years have been very challenging for AOL with multiple management shake ups, poorly executed strategy and a constant decline of their cash-cow subscribers. (Full disclosure, I was an executive at AOL's Platform-A)

AOL reminds me of a print media company with two business models that are at odds with one another. There dial-up business is like the newspapers printing and distribution business dying on the vine with AOL.com as the future. Fortunately, unlike their print counterparts, they have continued to invest in their future both organically and via acquisition.

If Tim has his way he will turn AOL into a content powerhouse delivering exactly the news and information consumers want around the globe via every channel (web, mobile, social, etc). This is an ambitious goal and one that many people don't understand. It seems that he is taking a page out of Arianna Huffington's book attempting to provide consumers advertiser supported content with a very efficient and cost effective organizational structure.

What I like about AOL's approach is that they recognize that they can't rely on their past success any longer. It is time for them to embrace the new future, deliver on their strategy and provide the Advertising 3.0 ecosystem that will catapult them ahead of MSN and Yahoo.
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Pre-Roll It's Alive and Well According to Unicast

My good friend Caleb Hill just released an interesting article on the state of Pre-roll and makes some good points worth considering. It is worth a read. Let me know what you think.
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The next web war will be local

I must be getting old because I remember the first time we had a local web war. Citysearch, AOL City Guides, Real Cities, Real Media and NewCenturyNetwork were all fighting over the local ad market. Citysearch is the only company still in local but they dramatically pulled back focusing mostly on the major metros.

Today according to Sports Business Journal Comcast launched an initiative to compete with ESPN in local sports. They are making large investments hiring journalists in the key cities where ESPN local has a presence. The key for Comcast will be to build their digital brand to effectively compete with ESPN's cross-channel capabilities.

It makes a lot of sense to do this expansion in sports first creating a core offering then expand out leveraging their local news and business coverage. It will be interesting to see how Comcast mobilizes their spotlight sales team to monetize these new sites.

The other company to watch in the local space is NBCLocal, they are continueing to add new markets, grow audience and provide compelling local coverage not available in TV or print.
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Your Data - Do you know who's sharing it?

Something that has been on my mind lately is how insecure advertiser and consumer data really is on the Web. Trust doesn't seem to exist in the online world and for good reason. Data is completely portable for those that know how to get it.

It is too bad that most agencies and publishers have no idea how the technology works or are too busy to pay attention to what information is being provided in every ad transaction and worse yet made completely available via that login being passed from agency to publisher.

As an industry we have become completely reliant on vendors of all shapes and sizes to help us become more efficient, most notably the third party ad server (both standard and rich media). Agencies using these vendors are not only in the creative and media planning business but they are also now in the business of sharing confidential information. Agency trafficking teams are so overworked that they frequently reuse or mistakenly send incorrect login info to publishers violating their confidentiality. Publishers frequently gain access to delivery data of other publishers thinking that it is specific to the campaign they are running with the agency. Now most publisher ad operations folks understand this and take the high road with the information, quickly deleting the email and requesting the correct access to their reports.

But worse yet is that because of our fast pace and limited resources actual IOs, the contracts by which advertising is bought and sold, are frequently sent to the wrong publishers. This is appalling and completely unacceptable! Agencies need to be held accountable for this and publishers better be aware that data is portable and you never know how or when it will get shared.
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It’s the end of the world as we know it!

Everyone has heard the scuttlebutt about third-party cookies. Most folks in our industry are in favor of cookies since virtually all the monetization strategies publishers and advertisers leverage rely on them to make the connection with the consumer. If you have been to a conference in the last few years you have heard panels on topics from privacy to behavioral targeting, consumer recommendations to opt-out bantering back and forth about cookies and how to protect the consumer. Sadly it has all been talk and no action. All the while, a dark cloud (the FTC) has been looming over our industry highlighting the need for better self-regulation. The large portals and media companies along with the IAB have been organizing to project an image for the folks in Washington, D.C. to prove that in fact we are making progress as an industry to ensure consumers are protected. However, the companies that should be involved in this discussion tend to be small, unknown technology companies that take full advantage of third-party cookies and are building the systems enabling the data transactions. These companies are also the ones profiting from the data capture or privacy invasion disintermediating the publisher revenue stream. I like to call these companies ‘the rotten eggs’.

Here is a list of categories the rotten eggs fit into from my perspective (in no particular order):
- Agency ad servers
- Targeting companies (behavioral, remarketing, etc)
- Rich media companies
- Ad optimizers
- Affiliate marketing companies
- Ad networks
- Data exchanges
- Site analytics and research

Now not every single company across every category is a rotten egg of course and I purposely didn’t include the obvious spyware/malware categories. In fact, most of the companies are trying to do good for one party or another within the ecosystem but the problem is that in every case the consumer has no idea who these companies are or why they have access to their information. These companies are by definition at arm’s length from the consumer, and in most cases completely invisible, making it very difficult for the consumer. There are a few companies that try to message to the consumer and educate them about cookies, targeting and the benefits to them. The IAB launched a program last year with a large number of their members contributing ad inventory. The challenge is that they contributed remnant inventory to the cause that consumers have been trained to avoid rendering the program worthless.

Something just happened that may shake up the industry. Last week the European Union passed a law that will REQUIRE consumer consent in order to use third party cookies for the purpose of collecting and sharing information across domains and delivering relevant targeted advertising within the next 18 months. Therefore any organization serving an ad or collecting data via the standard pixel on a page will need to present the consumer with a pop-up or some other message unit to gain consent. This will disrupt the normal Web experience for the consumer and cause some real challenges for companies to generate revenue. Publishers will carry the brunt of this burden causing a backlash from their consumers and likely a downward spiral of their revenue.
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TV Killed the Web Video Star

This Christmas season will prove to be very interesting for the Web Video market. I'm not talking about the excitement around the retail ad market bonanza or the new toys little Billy will get for Christmas. I am talking about the new Web enabled TVs that are hitting the market along with the upgrades to XBox and Playstation.

These IP enabled video devices are hitting the stores just in time for the holiday season and don't forget Superbowl (Go Eagles!) These new devices allow consumers to consume quality video content in HD when and where they want it. The experience is far superior to the typical video experience online today and gives the consumer more control than they have with the standard cable service.

The combination of features and value will put the nail in the coffin for YouTube and all the short form video aggregators. Online video revenue is going to grow over the next few years but I don't think the money will move to web video as we know it today.

Web video companies without rights to quality content need to look out. I see many of the networks, cable companies and quality video services leapfrogging the Internet and going straight to IP TV. They will use the web for scheduling, alerts, promotion and sometimes access via a PC but the primary viewer will be the TV. I am sure there will be a place for web video, but I guarantee you it will look very different from the 320x240 players that exist today.
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If Consumers Are King, Why Does Content Still Rule

I have been fortunate to attend a number of conferences recently covering the trends and technologies that are dramatically impacting everyone in the ecosystem. The biggest topics have been about demand-side networks, ad exchanges and the changing role of the ad network and publisher.

What I have found interesting is that in virtually every session the consumer came up during the conversation. Anytime the panelist or speaker described the role of the consumer they spoke of them as "King", "Paramount to success" or "Vital" in binding together the ecosystem. The consumer is at the center of everything we do as a marketing industry.

The consumer is in control! Well if the consumer is in control why do they seem lost, they are leaving destination sites in droves, they are searching more than ever, trying to connect with friends or following their leader on Twitter. It seems to me that the fragmentation that has been created online and on TV has left the consumer wondering aimlessly hoping for a Sherpa to lead them.

Who will be the next Sherpa? AOL was in the 80's, Yahoo was in the 90's, Google owned the 00's but 2010 is upon us and I am curious who will own the teens. Will it be Facebook, Twitter or someone new that will come from left field?
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Google to buy AdMob for $750 million in stock

I never intended this to be a Google blog but it seems like everyday they are doing something noteworthy. Yesterday B&C reported that Google would buy the mobile ad network start up AdMob to its stay of advertising and marketing services products.

In typical Google fashion they have massively overpaid for AdMob, which I estimate is likely generating $20 - $25 million in revenue. This tactic makes it very hard for anyone but Microsoft to counter them with a competitive purchase of another mobile ad network like Quattro, JumpTap or Millenium. Remember when Google bought DoubleClick Microsoft reacted and quickly acquired Atlas for $6 billion.

Google always makes the dominance play, AdMob has ~40% share of the iPhone ad market and a great brand among the agency community. It will be interesting to see how they integrate them into the fold - Will they launch an ad exchange for mobile? Use the network to promote YouTube superstars like TV tune-in or build on their sales team and launch an all out assault on MSN display sales business.
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Google the new Microsoft

Amazing how in less than ten years the competitive threat to virtually every business can shift from Microsoft to Google. Most people I speak with in the media community wish Microsoft could figure out how to apply all their capabilities and resources to fix the problems of the internet from billing to ad serving, optimization to rich media. Unfortunately, the reality is that Microsoft is too busy chasing Google, for good reason - search represents 60% of online ad revenue - leaving all the little people to fix the woes of every publisher.

The bad news is that there are very few companies working on solving the challenges publishers face today. Why is that you ask? Well it is because most publishers are too distracted with cost cutting in hopes of saving their legacy business to invest meaningful time or money in their interactive business. That forces vendors to search for other customers willing to pay for their goods and services.

If this was just a market timing issue it wouldn't be so bad but this has been going on for years. Publishers prefer to get paid - most vendors they work with (except for maaybe DoubleClick and Omniture) write them a check every month for advertising, share of inventory or audience or through some slick rev share relationship. This is a slippery slope, it disconnects publishers from the market and most importantly what their customers and advertising clients value.

Publishers need to evaluate all their vendor relationships, consider rethinking their investments in people, technology and process developing a strategy that gets them back in the game. If that happens companies large and small may refocus their innovation efforts on the publisher and give them a fighting chance.
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Speaking the same language

We have an ongoing problem in the interactive industry. We are in love with ourselves! Our sales people fall into the same trap year after year talking about the latest buzz words to look smart constantly talking right over the buyer. The engineers continue to make the decisions about how the media buying process should work without actually listening to the customers. We are not connecting with our buyers in a way that makes them comfortable, helps them meet their client objective specifically and ultimately creates a true dialogue addressing the problems they face everyday.

Now I am sure some folks will say we are making it easier to buy and sell display inventory via the ad networks or with RTB (real time bidding) exchanges. Others will tell me that their sales people are listeners and solution sellers which gets them in deep with their clients providing amazing creative and integrated media programs.

Even if these things are true the problem still exists. Buyers create media plans based on a large number of variables including environment, brand, demographics, intent, historical purchase behavior and many other interesting factors that we have not event scratched the surface of on the Internet. Once the buyer has built their plan they create an RFP that usually highlights these variables along with their client objective and asks a number of publishers to respond. Here is where the problem starts - publishers take the info in the RFP and then try to sell the buyer something other than what they wanted. For example, the buyer for Tide wants to reach Women age 25-44, with 2 kids in the house under 18 and interested in the environment. They have $100k to spend and what happens, the publisher takes that and responds with a program including a homepage takeover for one day, a 50% share of voice in their new 'green living' section that launched last month and another gazillion impressions ROS.

The buyer gets this back and has no idea how those inventory packages will perform based on the target and reach they laid out in the RFP. Compare this with how TV is bought and sold with is on clear metrics, research data that is normalized and shared between both the buyer and sell and a currency (GRP/TRP) that everyone understands and agrees works. Our industry needs to stop talking about the next cool thing and remember there are fundamentals in the media business (especially the brand sales process) that we simply have ignored for far to long. We need to created a dialogue with media buyers that they understand, the technology we build needs to be transformational and help the buyer connect directly with the inventory they buy for the client in a way that simply makes sense to them. If we do this the money will come our way!
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Ad:Tech - The Good, The Bad and well, The Ugly

Fall is here and the ad conferences are happening weekly. Ad:Tech is probably the largest event for our industry bringing together folks from all walks of life and more interactive advertising than most of us even knew existed. It was exciting to see so many people in attendance, I walked into the show late in the afternoon yesterday and was immediately greeted by a half dozen friends and colleagues that I hadn't see in a few months. Then I took a quick stroll around the show and noticed many meetings happening (not sure I saw any IOs being signed but business was being done for sure!)

During my walk I also realized that something was missing - something very obvious to me - there were no publishers, premium ad networks, social media or technology providers that one would expect to see. All the exhibitors and attendees were largely focused on search, lead gen and direct response tactics. This wouldn't be so bad if we were at a DMA conference but Ad:Tech New York! We are in the advertising capital should there be some companies here promoting the next generation of marketing and technology services?

Ad:Tech is bigger than ever this year despite the economy but in some ways it seems worse than ever too. Are the DR companies the only ones thriving? Is this what we have to look forward to as an industry, are we destined to be glorified direct mailers? Let me know what you think.
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When the pendulum swings

The interactive industry, as many other things, has a natural ebb and flow to it causing shifts in power. Over the last few years we have seen the shift in power away from the publisher (seller) towards the agency and marketer (buyer). There have been many new businesses that have benefited from this shift, ad networks, rich media providers, and most recently ad exchanges and media buying platforms.

The question that has come up in many conversations of late is whether or not there will be a natural shift back toward the publisher. Some hypothesize with the new focus on real-time bidding and audience aggregation that the power of the publisher will continue to slip and they will become a shell of what they once were. Others believe that the natural order of things will return and publishers will once again regain a strong position in the market.

In order for the later to happen publishers are going to need to make some major changes in their strategy, leadership, technology and business processes. This will not be an easy transition for many companies, especially those that are tied to traditional print or broadcast business models. There are a number of publishers that seem to be making great strides in this direction - Meredith, Hearst and Fox to name a few.

It will be interesting to see how these traditional publishers cope with the fast pace of change and if they can catch up.
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The Visible Metric

Today's announcement by EyeWonder launching their new visibility metric in their rich media platform sends a real message to the market that brand marketers are demanding actual views of their ads. For far too long online media has taken advantage of the blind nature of how display advertising is delivered and measured. Small publishers and individuals have created media properties and loaded them up with display ads creating the proverbial festivus of lights on their pages annoying consumers, reducing ad performance and lowering the overall value of the online medium.

This announcement is a call to action to all the technology providers in the advertising space to track actual viewership of ads, help us eliminate those bottom of the page ads and hidden ads in 1x1 iframes for more credible placements that deliver real results for marketers.
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